ACA in the 2010 Election

VII. Key Issues: Regulation & Reform >> C. Health Reform >> Affordable Care Act (ACA) >> ACA Repeal >> ACA and Public Opinion >> ACA in the 2010 Election (last updated 6.6.16)

Topic Outline

1 Overview
2 House Races
3 Senate Races
4 Governors’ Races
5 State Ballot Initiatives

Overview

Brendan Nyhan, Eric McGhee, John Sides, Seth Masket, and Steven Greene. One Vote out of Step? The Effects of Salient Roll Call Votes in the 2010 Election. American Politics Research 1532673X11433768, first published on March 6, 2012 doi:10.1177/1532673X11433768. This study shows that at least 25 members of Congress lost their seats in Congress during the 2010 elections because they voted for ObamaCare. It concludes by simulating counterfactuals that suggest health care reform may have cost Democrats their House majority.
Exit Polls. ABC News and polling partners CBS, CNN, Fox, NBC and The Associated Press jointly comprise the National Election Pool. The pool sponsored a nationwide exit poll (n=17,504) to captures voters’ preferences and attitudes. This poll provides the most insight into what is on voters’ minds across the country, and it gives an overview of the national House votes.

House Races

Republicans gained 63 seats in the House. Exit polls are not available at the congressional district level, but national exit polls do indicate the direction of voting in House races.

Which ONE of these four issues is the most important facing the country? ABC News reports exit poll results (n=8,717) showing 63% ranked the economy as most important, with health care ranking second (18%). Of those who chose health care, 51% voted for a Democrat and 47% voted Republican in House elections.
What Should Congress Do with the New Health Care Law? ABC News reports exit poll results (n=4,357) showing 48% favored Repeal it, 31% favored Expand it and 16% favored Leave it as is. Of those favoring repeal, 86% voted for a Republican House candidate and 11% Democrat; conversely, of those favoring expansion 84% voted Democrat and 15% voted Republican. Those preferring to leave it as it voted 64% D vs. 34% R.
Highest Priority for Next Congress. CNN reports 40% favored reducing the deficit, 18% favored cutting taxes and 37% favored spending to create jobs.

Senate Races

Arizona. 45% favored repeal, of whom 82% voted for McCain. 22% favored expansion, of whom 79% voted for Glassman. Of 33% who thought new health care law would make them worse off, 73% voted McCain. Of 32% who thought it would make them better off, 52% voted McCain. Of 45% who though it would make no difference, 50% voted McCain.
Arkansas. 48% thought economy was most important issue, versus 23% for health care. Of the latter, 56% voted for Blanche Lincoln (D) and 42% voted Boozman (R). 45% favored repeal, of whom 85% voted for R. 15% favored expansion, of whom 77% voted for D.
California. 50% thought economy was most important issue, versus 19% for health care. Of the latter, 68% voted for Barbara Boxer (D) and 29% voted Fiorina (R). 42% favored repeal, of whom 82% voted for R. 24% favored expansion, of whom 89% voted for D.
Colorado. 65% thought economy was most important issue, versus 11% for health care. Of the latter, 65% voted for Bennett (D) and 33% voted Buck (R). 51% favored repeal, of whom 83% voted for R. 30% favored expansion, of whom 89% voted for D.
Connecticut. No questions were asked about health care.
Delaware. 41% thought economy was most important issue, versus 27% for health care. Of the latter, 80% voted for Coons (D) and 20% voted O’Donnell (R). 36% favored repeal, of whom 77% voted for R. 19% favored expansion, of whom 95% voted for D.
Florida. 58% thought economy was most important issue, versus 19% for health care. Of the latter, 37% voted for Meek (D), 38% voted Rubio (R) and 25% voted for Crist (I). 47% favored repeal, of whom 65% voted for Rubio and 30% voted for Crist. 19% favored expansion, of whom 56% voted for D, 8% voted Rubio and 33% for I.
Hawaii. 44% thought economy was most important issue, versus 24% for health care. Of the latter, 75% voted for Inouye (D) and 25% voted Cavasso (R). 39% favored repeal, of whom 58% voted for R. 16% favored expansion, but no breakdown was provided of their votes. Of 41% favoring leave it as is, 70% voted D.
Illinois. 44% thought economy was most important issue, versus 29% for health care. Of the latter, 73% voted for Giannoulis (D) and 27% voted Kirk (R). 40% favored repeal, of whom 76% voted for R. 15% favored expansion, of whom 92% voted for D.
Indiana. 42% thought economy was most important issue, versus 24% for health care. Of the latter, 56% voted for Ellsworth (D) and 40% voted Coats (R). 38% favored repeal, of whom 86% voted for R. 19% favored expansion, of whom 70% voted for D.
Iowa. 58% thought economy was most important issue, versus 20% for health care. Of the latter, 41% voted for Conlin (D) and 58% voted Grassley (R). 51% favored repeal, of whom 88% voted for R. 26% favored expansion, of whom 68% voted for D.
Kentucky. 42% thought economy was most important issue, versus 28% for health care. Of the latter, 63% voted for Conway (D) and 37% voted Ron Paul (R). 36% favored repeal, of whom 80% voted for R. 20% favored expansion, of whom 92% voted for D.
Louisiana. 50% thought economy was most important issue, versus 21% for health care. Of the latter, 70% voted for Melancon (D) and 30% voted Vitter (R). 50% favored repeal, of whom 89% voted for R. 14% favored expansion, of whom 88% voted for D.
Missouri. 50% thought economy was most important issue, versus 18% for health care. Of the latter, 67% voted for Carnahan (D) and 33% voted Blunt (R). 47% favored repeal, of whom 69% voted for R. 14% favored expansion, of whom 92% voted for D.
Nevada. 58% thought economy was most important issue, versus 16% for health care. Of the latter, 70% voted for Harry Reid (D) and 26% voted Sharon Angle (R). 46% favored repeal, of whom 76% voted for R. 25% favored expansion, of whom 88% voted for D.
New Hampshire. 45% thought economy was most important issue, versus 21% for health care. Of the latter, 72% voted for Hodes (D) and 28% voted Ayotte (R). 41% favored repeal, of whom 75% voted for R. 16% favored expansion, of whom 95% voted for D.
New York. In the regular election, 50% thought economy was most important issue, versus 24% for health care. Of the latter, 79% voted for Schumer (D) and 28% voted Townsend (R). In the special election, 51%thought the economy was the most important issue, versus 23% for health care. Of the latter, 74% voted for Gillibrand (D) and 26% DioGuardi (R). The questions about repeal were not asked in NY.
Ohio. 51% thought economy was most important issue, versus 21% for health care. Of the latter, 65% voted for Fisher (D) and 35% voted Portman (R). 40% favored repeal, of whom 79% voted for R. 20% favored expansion, of whom 81% voted for D.
Oregon. 68% thought economy was most important issue, versus 12% for health care. Of the latter, 67% voted for Wyden (D) and 29% voted Huffman (R). 42% favored repeal, of whom 81% voted for R. 32% favored expansion, of whom 90% voted for D.
Pennsylvania. 50% thought economy was most important issue, versus 20% for health care. Of the latter, 70% voted for Sestak (D) and 30% voted Toomey (R). 40% favored repeal, of whom 78% voted for R. 19% favored expansion, of whom 90% voted for D.
South Carolina. 56% thought economy was most important issue, versus 17% for health care. Of the latter, 48% voted for Greene (D) and 35% voted DeMint (R). 51% favored repeal, of whom 66% voted for R and 9% voted for D. 10% favored expansion, but the vote split was not reported.
Vermont. The most important issue question was not asked in Vermont. 37% favored repeal, of whom 71% voted for Britton (R) and 29% for Leahy (D). 13% favored expansion, of whom 92% voted for D.
Washington. 72% thought economy was most important issue, versus 11% for health care. Of the latter, 60% voted for Murray (D) and 40% voted Rossi (R). 44% favored repeal, of whom 91% voted for R. 33% favored expansion, of whom 92% voted for D.
West Virginia. 59% thought economy was most important issue, versus 17% for health care. Of the latter, 75% voted for Manchin (D) and 20% voted Raese (R). 51% favored repeal, of whom 83% voted for R. 13% favored expansion, of whom 92% voted for D.
Wisconsin. 51% thought economy was most important issue, versus 22% for health care. Of the latter, 69% voted for Feingold (D) and 31% voted Johnson (R). 41% favored repeal, of whom 79% voted for R. 16% favored expansion, of whom 91% voted for D.

Governors’ Races

Republicans gained 6 gubernatorial seats and now hold 29 seats nationwide (1 is held by an Independent).

Arizona. 53% thought economy was the most important issue, versus 16% for health care. Of the latter, 64% voted for Goddard (D) and 36% voted for Brewer (R). 45% favored repeal, of whom 78% voted for Brewer. 21% favored expansion, of whom 90% voted for Goddard. Of 33% who thought new health care law would make them worse off, 76% voted R. Of 32% who thought it would make them better off, 54% voted D. Of 29% who though it would make no difference, 56% voted D.

Arkansas. 48% thought economy was most important issue, versus 23% for health care. Of the latter, 75% voted for Beebe (D) and 47% voted Keet (R). 45% favored repeal, of whom 58% voted for R. 15% favored expansion, of whom 91% voted for D.

California. 50% thought economy was most important issue, versus 19% for health care. Of the latter, 67% voted for Jerry Brown (D) and 29% voted Whitman (R). 42% favored repeal, of whom 78% voted for R. 25% favored expansion, of whom 83% voted for D.

Colorado. 71% thought economy was most important issue, versus 11% for health care. Of the latter, 68% voted for Hickenlooper (D), 7% voted Maes (R) and 23% Tancredo. 50% favored repeal, of whom 66% voted for Tancredo and 17% voted for Maes. 30% favored expansion, of whom 92% voted for D.

State Ballot Initiatives

Three states had ballot initiatives in November.

In Arizona, Proposition 106 proposed to amend the state constitution, making it illegal for any health-care plan to be mandatory for people in Arizona, including employers and health-care providers. It would also eliminate the possibility of penalties should someone choose to reject health insurance or seek it privately. 52% of voters thought the economy was the most important issued, compared to 17% who selected health care. Of those who thought health care was most important, 55% voted for Proposition 106, while the rest voted against. This compares to 51% of the Proposition 106 who thought the economy was the most important issue. Of the 47% of voters favoring repeal, 56% voted for the ballot measure, whereas among the 20% favoring expanding the health law, only 43% voted from Proposition 106. 32% of voters thought the health bill would make them worse off; of these, 56% voted for the ballot measure. Among the 36% who thought they would be better off, 45% still voted for Proposition 106.

In Colorado, Amendment 63 proposed amending the Colorado Constitution to:

add health care choice as a constitutional right;
prohibit the state from requiring or enforcing any requirement that a person participate in a public or private health coverage plan; and
restrict the state from limiting a person’s ability to make or receive direct payments for lawful health care services.

This amendment was defeated, but in the words of one observer: “In Colorado, Amendment 63 , which would have prohibited the state from requiring individuals to purchase health insurance, was defeated, but by a margin that suggests there is significant concern over this important aspect of the federal Affordable Care Act (ACA). Early polling on the ACA indicated potential confusion, with about equal numbers of Coloradans saying federal health care reform went too far and others saying more changes are needed (including further strengthening the law).” In exit polls, 72% thought the economy was the most important issue vs. 10% who chose health care. Of the first group, 46% voted in favor of the ballot measure and the rest voted No; parallel figures were not reported for those who thought health care was the most important issue. Of the 50% of voters favoring repeal, 61% voted for the ballot initiative whereas of the 30% who thought the law should be expanded, only 35% supported the ballot measure.

The Oklahoma Healthcare Freedom Amendment, also known as State Question 756, was on the November 2, 2010 ballot in Oklahoma as a legislatively referred constitutional amendment, where it was approved. The measure was in response to potential federal health care provisions, and allowed residents to be rid of any health care mandates. The proposal categorized a law that would require residents, employers or health care providers to participate in any health care system unconstitutional. Some opponents stated that a healthcare measure would not create much of an effect on the issue because federal law would overlap state law. Opponents also stated that because of this, there were more serious problems affecting the state that needed to be addressed. The measure passed 64.73% to 35.27%.